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Tuesday, February 9, 2010

Interesting Race for Oklahoma's US House District 1

"Republican Party Elephant" logoImage via Wikipedia

The Tulsa County GOP Straw Poll results were released yesterday, and the numbers for US House District 1 are very interesting.

U.S. Congress District 1

John Sullivan 52.9%

Nathan Dahm 26.6

Fran Moghaddam 1.5

Undecided 13.3

Not My District 5.7



Now, at first glance, these numbers look really strong for the incumbent John Sullivan. The meeting could be perceived as hostile territory, considering the undercurrent amongst the grassroots, against him.

However, I disagree with the take that the numbers aren't bad for Sullivan. He has been campaigning HARD for the last month, and Nathan Dahm, the most conservative, Tea Party candidate, hasn't even really started. Most of those in attendance didn't even know that Sullivan was being challenged, prior to the event this past Saturday. That indicates to me, that, even with a HUGE name recognition advantage, and at least 10 volunteer staffers in attendance, Sullivan is having difficulty drawing support.

Also, these numbers show that he is vulnerable. Don't be surprised if several others jump into the race, now. Including, Scott Pruitt. I don't have anything solid on that, but I am hearing rumblings!

It should be an interesting race. And, at the very least, a lot less comfortable for John Sullivan than he though it would be a year ago!
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